>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & COMPANY. "

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

>> TONIGHT WE GOT THE ANSWER.

THE PUBLIC DECIDED FOR CHANGE.

>> IN ISRAEL OPPOSITION LEADER GADI IDEN KOT DECLARES VICTORY AS BENJAMIN NETANYAHU CLAIMS HIS BLOC WINS DECISIVELY.

WITH NEITHER SIDE IN THE MAJORITY WE TAKE AN IN-DEPTH LOOK AT HOW THIS WILL ARE PLAY OUT.

THEN WHAT WILL ELECTIONS IN ISRAEL AND THE U. S. MEAN FOR THE PEOPLE OF IRAN?

I ASK HISTORIAN ALI ANSARI.

AND -- >> IT SURE WILL BE BETTER FOR THE WORLD'S DEMOCRACIES IF AMERICA IS ON TEAM DEMOCRACY.

>> UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND.

AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF DEALING WITH A CHAOTIC SUPERPOWER, PLUTOCRATS, AND OTHER COMPLICATED PEOPLE.

WALTER ISAACSON SPEAKS WITH FORMER CANADIAN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER CHRYSTIA FREELAND ABOUT HOW TO MANAGE A SEEMINGLY UNMANAGEABLE U. S. PRESIDENT.

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>> "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.

JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.

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AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

> >> AND A WARM WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M PAULA NEWTON IN NEW YORK SITTING IN FOR CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU IS DOWN BUT NOT QUITE OUT.

WITH ISRAEL'S VOTE COUNT ONGOING, THE COUNTRY FACES POTENTIAL DEADLOCK.

NEITHER NETANYAHU NOR HIS LEADING RIVAL EX-MILITARY CHIEF GADI EISENKOT IS PROJECTED TO REACH THE 61-SEAT THRESHOLD FOR A MAJORITY IN ISRAEL'S PARLIAMENT.

VOTERS TURNED OUT IN RECORD NUMBERS WITH A CONSEQUENTIAL SURGE AMONG PALESTINIAN ARAB VOTERS, WHO WE KNOW TO MAKE UP ABOUT 20% OF THE ELECTORATE.

THEY ARE NOW ON TRACK TO SECURE AT LEAST 19 SEATS IN THE KNESSET, THEIR HIGHEST EVER.

NOW BOTH LEADERS AND THEIR LEADING CONTENDERS SAY THEY WON'T FORM A GOVERNMENT WITH ARAB PARTIES.

HERE'S WHAT BENJAMIN NETANYAHU SAID SPEAKING AFTER THE POLLS CLOSED.

>> Translator: THE FIRST THING THAT WAS MADE CLEAR IS THAT THE LIKUD IS THE LARGEST PARTY IN ISRAEL.

THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.

AND THE SECOND THING THAT'S BEEN MADE CLEAR IS THAT THE RIGHT BLOC HAS A MAJOR DECISIVE MAJORITY AMONG THE ZIONIST PUBLIC.

>> NOTE, AMONG THE ZIONIST PUBLIC.

DELIBERATELY EXCLUDING PALESTINIANS FROM HIS COALITION.

ONCE THE COUNT IS FINAL THE HORSE TRADING BEGINS AND WE NOTE AGAIN THAT NETANYAHU IS A HORSE TRADER OF SOME REPUTE.

ISRAEL'S PRESIDENT, ISAAC HERZOG, NOW DECIDES WHO CAN BUILD A VIABLE COALITION.

HE WANTS ALL PARTIES TO HAVE AN OPEN MIND, AND THIS IS KEY HERE.

HE IS URGING THEM TO AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF VOTING.

YOU MAY REMEMBER THAT STARTING IN 2019 ISRAEL HELD FOUR ELECTIONS IN JUST TWO YEARS.

JOINING US NOW FOR A DEEPER LOOK AT WHERE WE ARE HEADED IS SHIRA EFRON.

SHE IS ISRAEL POLICY CHAIR AT RAND, A GLOBAL POLICY THINK TANK.

AND I WANT TO WELCOME YOU TO THE PROGRAM.

>> THANK YOU.

GOOD EVENING.

>> GOOD EVENING TO YOU.

I WANT TO START WITH YOUR MAJOR TAKEAWAYS HERE.

I MEAN, TURNOUT WAS HIGH.

RESULTS SPLIT.

WE DISCUSSED THE ARAB PARTIES GAINED A RECORD NUMBER OF SEATS, IT LOOKS LIKE.

BUT WHEN WE TAKE A DEEPER LOOK AT THIS, I MEAN, WHAT ARE YOUR TAKEAWAYS FROM, YOU KNOW, THE RESULTS?

ASIDE FROM THE OBVIOUS.

>> SO I THINK THERE'S A FUNDAMENTAL MISUNDERSTANDING ABOUT WHAT JUST HAPPENED IN ISRAEL BECAUSE THE WINNER IS THE LOSER AND THE LOSER IS PERCEIVED TO BE A WINNER.

NETANYAHU'S CURRENTLY --NETANYAHU'S COALITION CURRENTLY OCCUPIES 68 SEATS IN THE 120-SEAT PARLIAMENT, THE KNESSET.

THE VOTES ARE NOT FINAL, BUT THEY'RE CLOSE TO FINAL AND HE'S GOING TO FALL DOWN ON 53 OR 54 SEATS.

SO DEFINITELY A SOUNDING LOSS FOR HIS AGENDA IN THE ISRAELI KNESSET.

YOU KNOW, THE PARALLEL, YOU CAN SAY TO AN AMERICAN AUDIENCE HE JUST LOST CONGRESS.

THAT MEANS THAT GADI EISENKOT AND HIS OPPOSITION PARTNERS CAN IMMEDIATELY BEGIN WORKING IN THE KNESSET, CANCELING LEGISLATION, ADVANCING LEGISLATION, REMOVING KEY FIGURES FROM THE KNESSET.

AND THIS HAPPENS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ISRAEL'S PRESIDENT ASSIGNS THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT FORMATION ON ANY OF THEM.

YOU'RE RIGHT THAT WHEN IT COMES TO THE GOVERNMENT FORMATION, WHO ACTUALLY RUNS THE COUNTRY, THEN WE ARE RUNNING A SEPARATE PROCESS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE COMPLICATED.

>> SHIRA, THAT IS AN INTERESTING POINT YOU MAKE BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PARSE EXACTLY WHAT THIS WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE DAYS AFTERWARDS.

WE ARE NOW JOINED BY NADAV EYAL.

I BELIEVE YOU JUST ARRIVED.

YOU ARE WITH Y NELT.

YOU JUST ARRIVED TO ISRAEL.

SO I ASK THE SAME QUESTION TO YOU.

GIVEN THE RESULTS, WE STILL DON'T KNOW IF THEY'RE OFFICIAL BUT WE UNDERSTAND THIS COULD LEAD TO DEADLOCK IN ISRAELI POLITICS.

SO WHAT ARE YOUR KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THIS VOTE?

>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, THE ISRAELI PUBLIC SAID LOUD AND CLEAR THEY DON'T WANT THIS GOVERNMENT.

NETANYAHU HAS LOST HIS MAJORITY.

A NEW KNESSET WOULD BE SWORN IN.

A NEW PARLIAMENT WOULD BE SWORN IN.

IN THIS KNESSET HE HOLDS A MAJORITY OF 68.

IN THE NEXT KNESSET HE'S GOING TO HAVE ACCORDING TO -- AND BASICALLY ALL VOTES, ALMOST ALL VOTES HAVE BEEN COUNTED.

MAYBE 400,000 ARE LEFT.

HE'S GOING TO HAVE 56.

SO HE'S DOWN FROM 68 TO 56 AND THERE ARE ONLY 120 MEMBERS OF THE KNESSET.

HE HAS LOST THE ABSOLUTE MAJORITY THAT HE HAD IN A RESOUNDING WAY.

BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN, AS YOU SAID EARLIER, THAT THE FORMER GENERAL EISENKOT CAN ACTUALLY FORM A COALITION HIMSELF.

BECAUSE THE OPPOSITION IS DIVIDED.

IT'S DIVIDED BETWEEN ISRAELI PALESTINIAN PARTIES THAT ARE KNOWN ZIONISTS AND RIGHT-WING PARTIES THAT DON'T SUPPORT A PALESTINIAN STATE.

AND BECAUSE OF THAT THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE FACT THAT NETANYAHU LOST THIS ELECTION WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO A NEW GOVERNMENT TO REPLACE HIM ANYTIME SOON.

>> AND SHIRA, DO YOU SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY?

BECAUSE WHEN I PARSE THE RESULTS, AGAIN, IN MY TIME ZONE HERE IN NEW YORK I AGAIN SAW IT AS PERHAPS NETANYAHU NOT LEAVING THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP THERE.

AND I DO WANT TO TURN TO YOU TO SPEAK ABOUT THOSE CRUCIAL ARAB PARTIES.

WE SAID THEY COULD HAVE AS MANY AS 19 SEATS, THE HIGHEST EVER.

THEY MAKE UP 20% OF ISRAELI POPULATION.

BUT THEY ARE SO DISCONNECTED REALLY FROM ISRAELI POLITICS.

WILL THIS TIME BE DIFFERENT?

WILL THEY HAVE SOME AGENCY IN ANY KIND OF A COALITION HERE?

>> SURE, SO JUST BEFORE WE GET TO THE ARABS WHAT WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT EISENKOT THEORETICALLY HAS A PATHWAY TO FORMING A GOVERNMENT RELYING IN ONE SHAPE OR FORM ON THE ARAB PARTIES THAT YOU MENTIONED.

WHAT NETANYAHU IS NOW DOING, BECAUSE HE DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME PATHWAYS TO FORMING A COALITION, IS DELEGITIMIZE THE SAME ARAB PARTIES.

AND THE ARAB PARTIES TODAY --YESTERDAY, EXCUSE ME, HAVE SHOWN UP IN HISTORICAL NUMBERS.

IT'S LESS OF BEING DRAWN TO THEIR OWN PARTIES AND MORE OF A PROTEST VOTE AGAINST NETANYAHU'S AGENDA.

THEY ARE DEMANDING NOT TO BE TREATED NOT EVEN AS A SECOND-CLASS CITIZEN, A FIFTH-CLASS CITIZENS, FOURTH- CLASS CITIZENS, BUT HAVING PARTICIPATION THAT IS EQUAL IN ISRAEL'S LIFE AND SOCIETY.

AND THEY CANNOT BE IGNORED.

THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE IGNORED IN LEGISLATION, IN BUDGET ALLOCATION.

AND AGAIN, IF THE OPPOSITION WERE TO EMBARK ON THIS COURAGEOUS AND POLITICALLY MAYBE NOT EASY PATHWAY OF ATTEMPTING AT LEAST TO RELY AND PARTNER WITH THE ARABS, THEY WILL BE THE KINGMAKERS.

>> AND TO GET BACK TO THAT POINT, SHIRA, OF THE ARAB PARTIES, RIGHT NOW THAT COULD HAVE A HISTORIC WIN IN TERMS OF SEATS.

WILL THEY HAVE ANY WAY TO GOVERN IN THIS GOVERNMENT?

>> SO YOU KNOW, NOT ALL ARAB PARTIES ARE THE SAME.

ONE ARAB PARTY IN PARTICULAR, LED BY MANSOUR ABBAS, WHOSE NUMBER TWO IS A JEWISH FORMER SECURITY OFFICIAL, SIGALOVICH, THEY SUBSCRIBE AND ADHERE TO MOST OF THE CONDITIONS SET BY THE OPPOSITION TO FORM A GOVERNMENT.

THE JOINT LIST, WHICH IS THE BIGGEST ARAB LIST ACCORDING TO WHERE WE ARE IN THE COUNT, AT THE MOMENT IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THESE DEMANDS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY.

AND AGAIN, I'M NOT SAYING THIS COULD HAPPEN.

I'M SURE NADAV COULD ELABORATE ON HOW POLITICALLY CONTROVERSIAL THIS IS.

BUT THERE IS A PATHWAY FOR FORMING A GOVERNMENT, A COALITION WITH RAM AT LEAST AND WITH HAVING THE JOINT LIST ABSTAINING.

THIS WOULD MEAN THAT PRESIDENT ISAAC HERZOG DESPITE HIS PUSH FOR A UNITY GOVERNMENT, WHICH IS NOT GOING TO BE EASY EITHER, HE WILL RECEIVE MOST ENDORSEMENTS FOR GADI EISENKOT AND BASED ON THE ENDORSEMENTS HE WILL HAVE TO GIVE GADI EISENKOT THE KEY TO FORMING A GOVERNMENT.

WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN, NOT CLEAR AT ALL.

BUT THE ARABS HAVE A STRONG CARD TO PLAY.

>> AND NADAV, THAT'S WHERE WE PUT YOU ON THE SPOT.

RIGHT?

WE JUST SAW HIM THERE ON OUR SCREEN, ISRAEL'S PRESIDENT ISAAC HERZOG IS IN A VERY DIFFICULT POSITION AS SHIRA JUST OUTLINED.

I MEAN, HE'S TASKED WITH CHOOSING THE POLITICIAN MOST LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO GOVERN HERE.

AND HE'S ALREADY WARNED THEM, PLEASE DO NOT BRING US TO THE BRINK OF ANOTHER ELECTION.

SO NADAV, WHERE DO YOU THINK HE GOES NOW TO NAVIGATE THIS?

>> WELL, HE'S GOING TO TRY TO HAVE A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT BECAUSE THAT'S THE MOST OBVIOUS BE FIX TO THIS PROBLEM.

AND HERE'S THE PROBLEM.

NO HOMOGENOUS COALITION HERE ON BOTH SIDES, NO BLOC HAS WON AN OUTRIGHT 61, AS WAS SAID DURING THIS BROADCAST.

AND BECAUSE OF THAT THERE IS THE ABILITY AND THE TRADITION OF ISRAEL TO HAVE NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENTS.

NOW, THE PROBLEM THERE OF COURSE IS THAT NETANYAHU HAS LOST TRUST -- SORRY, NETANYAHU --HIS PARTNERS HAVE LOST TRUST IN NETANYAHU IN ANY KIND OF GOVERNMENT LIKE THAT.

HE IN THE PAST HAS MADE THE AGREEMENTS, FOR INSTANCE, TO HAVE A ROTATION IN THE POSITION OF PRIME MINISTER, AND HE DID EVERYTHING IN HIS POWER TO VIOLATE THAT AGREEMENT WITH FORMER GENERAL BENNY GANSZ.

AND HE DESTROYED HIM POLITICALLY BECAUSE OF THAT.

AND THAT'S JUST ONE EXAMPLE.

SO TO HAVE A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT YOU FIRST NEED TO HAVE TRUST BETWEEN THE SIDES.

BUT THERE ARE ALSO PRINCIPLE ISSUES.

THERE'S THE ISSUE OF MANDATORY SERVICE IN THE ARMY, OF CONSCRIPTION.

THERE ARE THE FAR RIGHT PARTNERS OF NETANYAHU, PEOPLE LIKE BEN GVIR AND SMOTRICH, THAT ISRAEL'S CENTER AND EISENKOT DON'T WANT TO SEE IN THE SAME GOVERNMENT AND SAY THEY ARE HARMFUL TO ISRAEL AND TO ISRAEL'S REPUTATION AROUND THE WORLD.

AND BECAUSE OF THAT IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY DIFFICULT TASK BY THE PRESIDENT.

AND HERE'S WHY IT'S MOST DIFFICULT.

IT'S MOST DIFFICULT BECAUSE NETANYAHU HAS A VESTED INTEREST IN ANOTHER ELECTIONS, BECAUSE THIS ELECTION WAS WHERE THE BLOC RUNNING AGAINST HIM THEY EMPLOYED EVERYTHING THEY COULD.

IT WAS A GENERAL ENLISTMENT TO THE POINT OF MANY, MANY THOUSANDS OF ISRAELIS FLYING IN FROM AROUND THE WORLD TO VOTE IN THE ELECTIONS IN ISRAEL YOU NEED TO BE PHYSICALLY IN THE COUNTRY IN ORDER TO VOTE.

SO EVERYTHING WAS DONE HERE ON A VOLUNTEER BASIS, ON A CAMPAIGN BASIS, FOR YEARS PREPARING THIS ELECTION, AND THEY DIDN'T MANAGE TO MUSTER A MAJORITY.

FOR NETANYAHU THE FACT THAT HE MANAGED TO EVEN SURVIVE THIS WITHOUT THEM REACHING A MAJORITY IS ACTUALLY HINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT IF HE GOES FOR ANOTHER ELECTION HE MIGHT ACTUALLY SWING IT AND WIN, OUTRIGHT WIN THE ELECTION AND HAVE A STABLE MAJORITY.

AND BECAUSE OF THAT WHY SHOULD HE AGREE TO A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT AS FAR AS HE IS CONCERNED RIGHT NOW?

AND THAT'S GOING TO BE THE QUESTION.

WHAT'S THE LEVERAGE?

AND THE ANSWER IS THE PRESIDENT HAS HAS NO LEVERAGE.

HE CAN JUST SAY NO.

AND THEN EISENKOT EITHER FORMS A COALITION WITH THOSE ARAB PARTIES OR WE'RE HEADED TO ANOTHER ELECTION.

>> YEAH.

AS YOU POINT OUT THERE ARE COMPLICATIONS FOR EISENKOT BOTH WITH A UNITY GOVERNMENT AND ANY KIND OF A COALITION GOVERNMENT.

PRESIDENT TRUMP SEEMS TO BE BACKING A UNITY GOVERNMENT.

HE CERTAINLY ENDORSED BENJAMIN NETANYAHU.

BUT ALL OF THIS IN TERMS OF A UNITY GOVERNMENT IS TRICKY BECAUSE EISENKOT DOESN'T WANT TO WORK WITH NETANYAHU, AS NADAV JUST MADE CLEAR.

SO WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE, ESPECIALLY --AND SHIRA, I WANT TO BRING IN, HOW SHALL WE CALL IT, THE LEGAL TROUBLES OF PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU BECAUSE THAT IS A KEY ELEMENT HERE AS WELL.

RIGHT?

IN TERMS OF HIS VERY SURVIVAL.

>> RIGHT.

SOME OF THE TERMS AS OPPOSITION LEADERS HAVE SAID, THEY HAVE NO PROBLEM SITTING IN A GOVERNMENT WITH NETANYAHU AS A MINISTER.

HOWEVER, HE CANNOT SERVE AS A MINISTER BECAUSE OF HIS LEGAL TROUBLES ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELI LAW.

HE MUST STAY PRIME MINISTER.

AND THAT IS A TICKET OUT OF HIS LEGAL TROUBLES.

THERE HAVE BEEN THROUGHOUT THE YEARS MULTIPLE SPECULATIONS OF NETANYAHU AGREEING TO RETIRE FROM THE POLITICAL LIFE AND RECEIVING SOME PARDONING, CANCELING THE TRIAL.

THERE HAVE BEEN DIFFERENT SUGGESTIONS AND THEY HAVE NOT PANNED OUT AND SOME OF THESE SPECULATIONS HAVE BEEN RAISED AGAIN.

WHEN NADAV SPOKE ABOUT THE PRESIDENT, THE ISRAELI PRESIDENT NOT HAVING LEVERAGE, THE U. S. PRESIDENT MIGHT HAVE LEVERAGE.

AND THIS IS ALSO SPECULATIVE.

BUT WHETHER HE'S GOING TO CALL THE TWO SIDES TO FORM A UNITY GOVERNMENT AND HIMSELF PROVIDE THE SORT OF --HE WOULD VOUCH FOR NETANYAHU THIS TIME, FULFILLING THE TERMS OF THE AGREEMENT, BUT WE ARE IN A REAL PREDICAMENT ON ALL SIDES BECAUSE FOR GADI EISENKOT AND THE OPPOSITION SITTING WITH THE ARABS COULD BE A VIOLATION OF THEIR CAMPAIGN PROMISE BUT THE SAME IS SITTING UNDER NETANYAHU AND HIS GOVERNMENT BECAUSE THEY SEE IT AS A REFERENDUM ON OCTOBER 7 AND THEY WANT TO SEE ANYONE AND EVERYONE WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IMMENSE FAILURE OUT, AND PRIMARILY PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU.

>> YEAH, I MEAN, SHIRA, THE CHALLENGES THAT YOU'RE POINTING OUT THERE, THEY ARE STARK.

NADAV, LOOK, OBVIOUSLY ALL OF THIS IS HAPPENING AS THE IRAN CONFLICT CONTINUES AND REPORTS THAT NETANYAHU, HE WANTED TO LAUNCH NEW ATTACKS EVEN BEFORE THE ELECTION.

WE HEARD EARLIER THAT EISENKOT IN HIS SPEECH SAID, AND I'M QUOTING HIM NOW, EISEN KOTD, "NETANYAHU, DON'T DARE USE ISRAEL'S SECURITY FOR YOUR POLITICAL NEEDS. "

SOME ARGUE HE ALREADY HAS.

DOES THIS ELECTION IMPACT WHAT WILL HAPPEN VIS-A-VIS THE CONFLICT WITH IRAN GOING FORWARD?

>> OF COURSE.

WE ARE IN A VERY DANGEROUS PERIOD RIGHT NOW.

FIRST THERE IS TENSION WITH THE IRANIANS.

AS TO ACTIONS THAT THE IRANIAN REGIME HAS BEEN CONDUCTING RELATED TO THEIR MILITARY CAPABILITIES, MAYBE BALLISTIC CAPABILITIES AND OTHERS.

AND BECAUSE OF THAT TENSION THERE'S A LOT OF DISCOURSE AROUND THE REGION AND --AS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STRIKE IN IRAN.

AND THE PERSON WHO NEED TO MAKE THAT DECISION IS OF COURSE THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

IF THE PRESIDENT WANTS A STRIKE IN IRAN IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

IF THE PRESIDENT SAYS NO, THERE'S NOTHING GOING TO HAPPEN AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS, RIGHT?

AT LEAST.

ISRAEL IS NOT GOING TO DO ANYTHING THAT THE WHITE HOUSE TELLS HER NOT TO DO.

BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY AFTER THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS IT'S PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU WHO HAS ACTUALLY LOST THE MAJORITY IN THE KNESSET.

AND I NEED TO EXPLAIN, IT'S NOT LIKE IN THE UNITED -- IN ISRAEL THE HOUSE --TO MAINTAIN YOUR RULE.

IF YOU LOST CONTROL OF THE KNESSET THAT'S IT.

YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO BE OUT OF OFFICE.

UNTIL, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A NEW GOVERNMENT.

AND IN THAT INTERIM PERIOD NETANYAHU CAN ACTUALLY -- >> APOLOGIES -- >> IF HE STRIKES IT'S COMPLETELY LEGAL.

DOESN'T NEED TO GO TO PARLIAMENT IN ORDER TO AUTHORIZE THAT.

SO IT'S A VERY TENSE PERIOD.

AND YES, IT CAN ALSO SERVE HIS POLITICAL NEEDS.

I SHOULD SAY THAT FIGHTING AGAINST IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND GENERALLY FIGHTING AGAINST IRAN IS SORT OF A CONSENSUS IN ISRAEL'S POLITICAL SPHERE.

>> SHIRA, I'M GOING TO LET YOU GET IN HERE OPT N THE IRANIAN POINT.

BUT AS YOU ARE THERE I WANT TO ASK YOU, I MEAN, LOOK, I HAVE NO STAKE IN THIS AND I'M EXHAUSTED.

AND I CAN'T IMAGINE WITH THE TRAUMA THAT ISRAEL HAS GONE THROUGH IN A LITTLE BIT OVER THREE YEARS NOW, NOT TO MENTION THE YEARS BEFORE, I HAVE REPORTED FROM ISRAEL AND THE REGION.

WHAT ARE ISRAELIS FEELING AT THIS HOUR?

I CAN'T EVEN IMAGINE.

>> SO JUST ONE POINT ON IRAN.

I THINK WE --THE SITUATION IS EVEN MORE PRECARIOUS NOW, JUST TO YOUR QUESTION, BECAUSE OBJECTIVELY THE PREVIOUS TWO ROUNDS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AT LEAST NOT THE HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM, AND WE KNOW IRAN IS REBUILDING ITS BALLISTIC MISSILES.

SO THERE'S A SECURITY PRETEXT TO LAUNCH THE CAMPAIGN THAT WOULD BE DECIDED BY TRUMP BUT ALSO FROM NETANYAHU'S PERSPECTIVE THIS CHANGES THE CONVERSATION AGAIN AND THE AGENDA TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND IT WOULD FORCE THIS NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT BUT UNDER HIS OWN TERMS.

SO I COULD SEE ALSO POLITICAL JUSTIFICATION.

BUT YOU KNOW, TO YOUR QUESTION I THINK ISRAELIS ARE EXHAUSTED.

YOU NEED TO REMEMBER, ISRAEL HAS BEEN AT WAR WITH ITS NEIGHBORS FOR THREE YEARS ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.

THE YEAR BEFORE ISRAEL WAS AT WAR WITH ITSELF OVER THE JUDICIAL OVERHAUL AND ISRAEL'S FUTURE AS A LIBERAL DEMOCRACY.

THE ELECTIONS.

AND ISRAEL'S GROWING ISOLATION IN THE WORLD AND, YOU KNOW, EVERY -- THERE'S NOT A DAY THAT GOES BY WITHOUT SHOWERS OF NEWS AND OTHER SANCTIONS IN ONE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER EVENT.

I THINK ISRAELIS ARE EXHAUSTED.

AND THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS THAT PRESIDENT HERZOG IS REALLY ADAMANT ABOUT PREVENTING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELECTIONS, FOR THIS REASON.

WHETHER HE SUCCEEDS OR NOT, THOUGH, REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

>> YEAH.

AND THAT'S WHAT IS SO DISCONCERTING BY LOOKING AT THE SITUATION RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE NO MATTER WHAT HE SAYS, NO ONE CAN GUARANTEE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANOTHER ROUND OF ELECTIONS AND SOON.

SHIRA EFRON FROM RAND.

NADAV EYAL FROM YNET.

WE THANK YOU BOTH AS WE CONTINUE TO TRY AND PARSE WHAT ISRAEL'S POLITICAL FUTURE WILL LOOK LIKE.

GRATEFUL TO BOTH OF YOU.

THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU.

>> SO WITH NEITHER BLOC IN THE MAJORITY IN ISRAEL BENJAMIN NETANYAHU'S CARETAKER GOVERNMENT REMAINS IN POWER.

NOW THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL" IS REPORTING THAT THE ISRAELI AND AMERICAN MILITARIES ARE PREPARING FOR POSSIBLE SHORT INTENSE STRIKES ON IRAN.

IN ISRAEL THIS RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT NETANYAHU'S MANDATE TO GO BACK TO WAR.

OPPOSITION LEADER GADI EISENKOT WARNED ABOUT THAT, SPEAKING TO THOSE SERVING IN THE ISRAELI ARMED FORCES.

LISTEN TO THIS.

>> Translator: NETANYAHU IS A CARETAKER PRIME MINISTER WITHOUT A MANDATE OR THE PEOPLE'S TRUST.

REMEMBER THAT YOU SERVE ONLY THE STATE AND THE INTERESTS OF ISRAEL'S CITIZENS.

STAND FIRM IN THE FACE OF ANY ATTEMPT TO CHALLENGE YOU.

NETANYAHU, DO NOT DARE USE ISRAEL'S SECURITY FOR YOUR POLITICAL NEEDS.

>> AND THEN THIS.

ACCORDING TO A U. N. REPORT, THE PEOPLE OF IRAN ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN ATTACKS FROM ABROAD AND REPRESSION AT HOME.

SO WHAT CAN THEY EXPECT AFTER THE VOTES ARE COUNTED IN ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES?

WE WANT TO DISCUSS ALL OF THIS WITH ALI ANSARI.

HE'S A PROFESSOR OF IRANIAN HISTORY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ST.

ANDREWS.

AND I REALLY WANT TO WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

I'VE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS DISCUSSION.

APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU.

>> NOW, WE HAVE JUST BEEN TALKING ABOUT THOSE HIGHLY CONSEQUENTIAL ELECTIONS IN ISRAEL.

IN YOUR ESTIMATION WHAT'S AT STAKE HERE FOR IRAN AND WHAT WOULD ANOTHER TERM FOR NETANYAHU AS PRIME MINISTER MEAN FOR THEM?

>> WELL, I THINK A NETANYAHU VICTORY IS PROBABLY THE LAST THING THEY WANTED.

IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO INCREASE THE --OBVIOUSLY THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ATTACK, ALTHOUGH I THINK FROM AN IRANIAN PERSPECTIVE THE DIFFERENCES IN POLICY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CANDIDATES WOULD HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SLIGHT.

BUT OF COURSE NETANYAHU HAS BEEN MUCH, MUCH MORE VOCAL IN HIS CALL TO FINISH THE JOB, SO TO SPEAK, AND TO MOVE AHEAD WITH IN HIS OWN MIND THE REMOVAL OF THE REGIME IN IRAN.

SO I THINK THERE WILL BE A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF ANXIETY AND ANTICIPATION THAT ACTUALLY THE PROSPECT OF THE COLD WAR GOING HOT AGAIN IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.

>> MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.

THAT IS PROBABLY THE ESTIMATION IN THE REGION AS WELL.

AS WE SEE PEOPLE PREPARE THERE.

WHAT WE'RE HEARING ABOUT IS A POTENTIAL PLANNING ON THE PART OF THE U. S. FOR A SHORT AND INTENSE RENEWAL OF THE WAR AFTER THOSE MIDTERMS.

AND THEN YOU HAVE IRANIAN OFFICIALS THAT CONTINUE TO BE DEFIANT.

MEHDI MOHAMMADI, SPEAKER ADVISER TO THE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT MOHAMMED GALABAF.

HE SAID ON SOCIAL MEDIA, I'M QUOTING NOW, "WE ARE IN A SURPRISE PHASE OF THE WAR AND WE WILL NOT FIGHT A CLASSIC WAR," WARNING HERE "IT WILL BE AASYMMETRICAL, FIERCE AND CONCLUSIVE WAR THAT WILL TARGET THE ENEMY'S STRONG POINTS AND WEAK SPOTS. "

I MEAN, LISTEN, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS RHETORIC?

AND I WANT TO POINT OUT TO OUR AUDIENCE THAT VERY EARLY ON YOU PREDICTED THAT IRAN WOULD HOLD ITS OWN IN ANY KIND OF CONFLICT.

>> WELL, I MEAN, I THINK --THE IRANIANS ARE VERY GOOD AT BOMBAST, VERY GOOD AT SORT OF CONTROLLING THE NARRATIVE.

THEY'LL WANT TO BE SURE THAT THE MESSAGE IS IS PUT OUT VERY, VERY CLEARLY TO ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES THAT THEY WILL HIT BACK QUITE HARD.

NOW, THE ISSUE HERE WILL BE IS THAT I THINK LAST TIME CERTAINLY I THINK THE UNITED STATES IF NOT ISRAEL WAS PROBABLY TAKEN BY SURPRISE BY THE REACTION THAT THE IRANIANS HAD PUT IN.

THE QUESTION REALLY WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IS HOW PREPARED NOW THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL ARE FOR ANY RENEWAL OF CONFLICT SHOULD THEY DECIDE TO GO DOWN THAT PATH.

THERE'S NO EXCUSE FOR BEING CAUGHT BY SURPRISE NOW.

I MEAN, YOU WOULD HAVE TO BE MUCH, MUCH BETTER PREPARED.

YOU'D HAVE TO BE MUCH MORE AWARE OF WHAT YOU'RE PLANNING TO HIT AND WHY.

AND ALSO TO AS YOU SAY PREPARE YOURSELF FOR ANY REACTION THAT MAY COME IN.

NOW, ONE MUST ASSUME THAT THE PREVIOUS ROUND OF COMBAT DID DIMINISH AND DID DEGRADE SOME OF IRAN'S ABILITY TO HIT BACK.

SO THE QUESTION MARK IS TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THE IRANIANS INDULGING IN A BIT OF BOMBAST, TO WHAT EXTENT CAN THEY ACTUALLY HIT BACK AS MUCH AS THEY CLAIM THEY CAN?

LAST TIME OF COURSE AS I SAID, THEY CAUGHT THE AMERICANS CERTAINLY BY SURPRISE WITH THE SPEED AND THE EXTENT OF THEIR FIGHT BACK, ALTHOUGH IT WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE ECLECTIC THAN PEOPLE OFTEN PRESENTED.

I MEAN, YOU HAD THIS DECENTRALIZED COMMAND THAT WAS FIRING AT ALMOST EVERYONE INCLUDING IN SOME CASES ALLIES, WHICH OBVIOUSLY THE IRANIANS HADN'T INTENDED BUT THERE YOU ARE.

SO I THINK WE HAVE TO BE --WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT WHAT THEY'RE PLANNING TO DO BUT ALSO ONE WOULD ASSUME OR ONE WOULD HAVE TO HOPE TO ASSUME THAT CENTCOM AND THE ISRAELIS, YOU KNOW, ARE ALSO THINKING VERY CAREFULLY ABOUT WHAT THEY'RE FACING THIS TIME AND WHAT THEY MIGHT HAVE TO FACE IN RETALIATION.

>> CAN YOU EXPLAIN A COMMENT THAT YOU MADE, AGAIN, SEVERAL MONTHS AGO?

YOU ARGUE THAT IRAN IS MORE AFRAID OF PEACE THAN WAR.

WHAT DID YOU MEAN BY THAT?

>> I THINK --AT THE MOMENT, YOU SEE, YOU HAVE A SITUATION WITH THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS ARE VERY MUCH IN CONTROL IN THE SENSE THAT THEY --YOU KNOW, YOU'RE IN A MILITARY SITUATION.

YOU ARE UNDER THREAT.

THEY CAN EFFECTIVELY, AS PEOPLE HAVE SAID TO ME, IRAN IS UNDER MARTIAL LAW.

IT'S ESSENTIALLY THERE'S A MILITARY GOVERNMENT.

WHAT THEY WORRY ABOUT I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY IS IF YOU END UP HAVING SOME SORT OF PEACE, FIRST OF ALL, IT HAS TO BE A PEACE THEY CAN SELL.

AND YOU HAVE TO BEAR IN MIND THAT IRAN'S IDEOLOGY AND THE IDEOLOGY OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION DOESN'T GO FOR COMPROMISE.

I MEAN, IT REQUIRES THAT ITS NARRATIVE IS THAT IT WILL WIN A GREAT VICTORY AGAINST THE WEST AND IT WILL ACHIEVE THIS.

SO IT HAS TO ACHIEVE SOMETHING.

AND IF IT'S SHORT OF ACHIEVING THAT IT WILL HAVE TO EXPLAIN BOTH TO ITS SUPPORTERS AND TO THOSE MANY, MANY PEOPLE WHO ARE DISAFFECTED WITH THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION AND REPUBLIC, YOU KNOW, WHY THEY'VE HAD TO GO THROUGH SO MUCH PAIN.

AT THE END OF THE DAY WE TALK A LOT ABOUT THE RECKONING THAT MAYBE NETANYAHU OR TRUMP OR OTHERS WILL HAVE TO FACE AT HOME AND OBVIOUSLY WE SEE THE ELECTIONS NOW.

I THINK THERE WILL ALSO BE A RECKONING IN IRAN ITSELF.

I MEAN, PEOPLE WILL SORT OF SAY --WILL BE SAYING TO THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS YOU BROUGHT THIS WAR ON, YOU'VE BEEN VERY BOMBASTIC IN FIGHTING IT, WHAT HAVE YOU ACHIEVED.

AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE DISCUSSIONS GOING ON IN IRAN AT THE MOMENT THERE'S ALREADY A LOT OF CRITICISM, ACTUALLY, ABOUT THE WAY IN WHICH THE WAR HAS BEEN HANDLED.

WE LOOK AT IT FROM A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE BECAUSE WE'RE LOOKING AT THE THE FAILINGS ON OUR OWN SIDE.

BUT THEY ALSO ARE LOOKING AT THE FAILINGS ON THEIR SIDE ABOUT HOW THEY HAVEN'T REALLY ACHIEVED THE SORT OF THINGS THAT THEY WANT TO ACHIEVE.

AND OF COURSE THE MINUTE YOU GET SOME SORT OF PEACE PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO EXPLAIN THE SITUATION THEY'RE IN.

THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN IRAN IS EXTREMELY POOR AT THE MOMENT.

>> YEAH, AS WE'VE HEARD BEFORE, YOU WONDER, THOUGH, WHAT KIND OF AGENCY THEY WILL HAVE.

I'M GROWING TO GET TO EVERYONE IN IRAN WAITING, YOU KNOW, FOR A CHANGE.

BUT WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT THOSE ORDINARY IRANIANS.

THE U. FL SPECIAL RAPPORTEUR IN IRAN RECENTLY SAID THE WAR HAS INTENSIFIED REPRESSION INSIDE OF IRAN.

THINK OF THAT.

IT'S INCREASED REPRESSION.

MANY STRUGGLING AS YOU SAY TO MAKE ENDS MEET.

INFLATION SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL.

I WANT TO HEAR NOW FROM SOME PEOPLE IN IRAN ABOUT THEIR SITUATION.

>> Translator: AS FOR SAVINGS I DON'T THINK ANYONE HAS MUCH IN THE WAY OF SAVINGS ANYMORE.

PEOPLE ARE MANAGING THEIR INCOME AS BEST THEY CAN.

I HAD DECIDED TO LIVE AS FRUGALLY AS POSSIBLE THIS MONTH AND CUT BACK ON MY SPENDING.

I WANTED TO ELIMINATE MANY OF MY USUAL EXPENSES AND DO WITHOUT A LOT OF THINGS.

BUT EVEN THEN IT'S STILL NOT ENOUGH.

THERE'S HARDLY ANYTHING LEFT AT THE END OF THE MONTH.

>> THAT IS JUST THE ECONOMIC SIDE OF THIS.

NEVER MIND THE KIND OF REPRESSION.

I HEAR THE DISCONTENT IN IRAN, THAT IT IS FILTERING THROUGH AND THAT THEY WILL DEMAND SOMETHING OF THEIR LEADERS, WHOEVER THEY ARE, BECAUSE IT IS VERY OPAQUE EXACTLY WHO HAS CONTROL OF IRAN RIGHT NOW.

BUT WHERE DOES THAT LEAD THEM?

>> WELL, THE FIRST DISSENT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN PROBABLY WITHIN MEMBERS OF THE ELITE ITSELF.

THERE WILL BE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE ELITE ABOUT HOW THEY'RE TAKING THE COUNTRY FORWARD.

AND YOU CAN SEE THAT IN THE DISCUSSIONS.

AND THEN AFTER THAT YOU WILL SEE PROBABLY DISCONTENT ON THE GROUND.

NOW, WHAT THAT LEADS TO, AS YOU SAY, IS SOMETHING THAT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR.

WHEN YOU HAVE ONE GROUP OF PEOPLE WITH A LOT OF GUNS WHO ARE SORT OF OPPRESSING ANOTHER GROUP OF PEOPLE WITHOUT ANY GUNS, IT'S QUITE --THE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN THAT SUPPRESSION IS FAIRLY TIGHT.

BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY I THINK YOU WILL SEE A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF DISSENSION EVEN WITHIN THE RANKS.

THE REGIME ITSELF DOES HAVE TO PAY ITS SHOCK TROOPS.

NOT EVERYONE IS DOING THIS ON THE BASIS OF ZEALOUS BELIEF.

THEY'RE DOING IT BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO SORT OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS AT A TIME WHEN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS REALLY SUFFERING.

SO WHEN YOU FIND THAT ACTUALLY YOU'RE UNABLE TO PAY YOUR OWN SHOCK TROOPS THAT'S WHEN THE REGIME WILL COME INTO REAL DIFFICULTY.

AND WE'RE NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM THIS AT THE MOMENT.

THE SITUATION --PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IRAN BEING A SANCTIONED COUNTRY, AND IT HAS BEEN A SANCTIONED COUNTRY OVER MANY YEARS.

BUT IT'S NEVER BEEN BLOCKADED ON QUITE THIS SCALE.

I MEAN, THIS IS A WHOLLY DIFFERENT SCALE OF ECONOMIC PRESSURE.

AND I THINK IT'S BANKING ON THE FACT THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL BLINK FIRST OR THE AMERICANS WILL BLINK FIRST.

AND I THINK THEY OUGHT TO BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT THIS.

AT THE MOMENT IT'S NOT AT ALL CLEAR THAT CERTAINLY THE WESTERN ECONOMIES OR THE UNITED STATES WILL BLINK BEFORE THEY HAVE MUCH MORE --MUCH BIGGER PROBLEMS TO HANDLE DOMESTIC HADLY.

>> AND TO THAT POINT IN TERMS OF WHEN THE TIPPING POINT MAY COME IN IRAN, MONTHS AGO YOU QUOTED THE PHILOSOPHER HANNAH ARENDT SAYING, AND I LOVE THIS QUOTE, "REVOLUTIONS ARE IMPOSSIBLE BEFORE THEY HAPPEN AND INEVITABLE AFTER THEY HAPPEN. "

WHEN YOU CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE DIALOGUE ON IRAN RIGHT NOW, KNOWING EVERYTHING YOU KNOW ABOUT ITS HISTORY, BECAUSE WE WANT TO REALLY LEAN INTO YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF IRANIAN HISTORY, CAN THIS REALLY STILL HAPPEN IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS?

YOU TALK ABOUT THE PRESSURE FROM THE UNITED STATES.

AND YET HERE WE ARE.

RIGHT?

WE STILL DON'T SEE THE CHANGE THAT IRANIANS WANT ON ANY LEVEL.

>> I THINK IT'S --I THINK THESE THINGS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

AS A HISTORIAN I'LL BE ABSOLUTELY STRAIGHT WITH YOU AND SAY THAT WHAT WE SHOULD REALLY BE DOING IS THINKING OF CONTINGENCIES AND ABOUT WHAT CAN HAPPEN.

IT'S TRUE, YOU KNOW --IT BASICALLY GOES TO THAT SORT OF FAMOUS HEMINGWAY QUOTE, THAT HOW DID YOU GO BANKRUPT?

FIRST VERY SLOWLY AND THEN VERY QUICKLY.

THE PROBLEM IS WE'RE ALWAYS TEETERING ON THE BRINK WITH IRAN.

IT'S NOT LIKE WE'VE ALWAYS HAD THE BEST PREDICTIONS IN THE GEOPOLITICS PROFESSION.

IT'S NOT LIKE WE FORESAW THE FALL OF THE SOVIET UNION, FOR INSTANCE OR THE FALL OF YUGOSLAVIA.

OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IN VERY POOR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS.

OF COURSE THAT'S TRUE THERE.

BUT THE FACT IS IN IRAN YOU HAVE AN IDEOLOGICAL REGIME THAT SEEKS TO GO IN A PARTICULAR DIRECTION.

IT'S VERY POSSIBLE THAT YOU'LL GET TO A TIPPING POINT WHERE THINGS BEGIN TO UNRAVEL EXTREMELY QUICKLY.

AND OF COURSE THAT'S THE PROBLEM.

IT COULD LAST.

IT COULD CERTAINLY LAST FOR MONTHS OR YEARS TO SOME EXTENT.

I PERSONALLY DOUBT IT MYSELF UNDER THIS SORT OF PRESSURE.

BUT NONETHELESS, AT THE END OF THE DAY HISTORY AND THE HISTORY OF IRAN ALSO TELLS US THAT WHEN REGIMES GO THEY GO VERY QUICKLY AND THEY GO OFTEN WITHOUT ANY SENSE OF PREDICTION.

WE HAD THAT EARLIER IN THE LAST CENTURY.

WE HAD THAT DURING THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION ITSELF IN WHICH A SEEMINGLY VERY POWERFUL STATE COLLAPSED WITHIN THE SPACE OF ABOUT SIX MONTHS.

AND OF COURSE THIS REQUIRES A CERTAIN CONSTELLATION OF EVENTS, CONTINGENCY, THE FACT THAT --WHETHER THOSE ON THE LOSING SIDE ARE WILLING TO ADMIT THAT THEY'VE LOST.

I MEAN, THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF THINGS THAT HAVE TO BE IN PLAY.

BUT CERTAINLY ECONOMIC CRISIS IS ONE OF THOSE ONES THAT TRIGGERS THIS.

AND THERE'S ALSO A POLITICAL CRISIS AFOOT.

AGAIN, I WOULD EMPHASIZE THAT A LOT OF THIS WILL HAPPEN INTERNALLY.

I THINK WHAT HAPPENS EXTERNALLY MAY PUSH THINGS, MAY ACCELERATE THINGS, MAY TIP THINGS OVER.

BUT ULTIMATELY AT THE END OF THE DAY IT DEPENDS WHAT PEOPLE INSIDE THE COUNTRY CHOOSE TO DO AND IT DEPENDS ALSO HOW THE ELITES IN THE COUNTRY DECIDE TO NEGOTIATE WHAT'S GOING FORWARD.

AND I THINK THERE'S A LOT TO PLAY FOR HERE.

AND YOU KNOW, THE ASSESSMENT THAT SOME PEOPLE HAVE THAT IRAN OR THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN IS EXTREMELY STRONG AND IS LIKELY TO LAST FOR AN ETERNITY, I MEAN, NO SYSTEM IN IRAN, NO POLITICAL SYSTEM IN IRAN LASTS FOREVER.

NO POLITICAL SYSTEM ANYWHERE LASTS FOREVER.

IF YOU'RE UNDER THIS SORT OF PRESSURE SOONER OR LATER THE LAWS OF GRAVITY WILL APPLY TO EVERYONE.

I MEAN, THESE ARE THINGS THAT WILL APPLY.

AND I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO BEGIN TO SEE FRACTURING WITHIN THE POLITICAL SYSTEM DOMESTICALLY.

BUT AS PREDICTION I'M GOING TO BE VERY OPEN WITH YOU.

AS A HISTORIAN WE DON'T DO PREDICTIONS.

>> I WILL, THOUGH, PRESS UPON YOU AGAIN AND YOUR HISTORY, YOUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE HISTORY OF IRAN AND THE REGION.

AND WE GET TO THAT COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEHRAN AND WASHINGTON.

OBVIOUSLY IT'S BEEN TUMULTUOUS.

BUT I REALLY WANTED TO ASK YOU THIS QUESTION.

WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE THE UNITED STATES FUNDAMENTALLY MISUNDERSTANDS ABOUT IRAN AND ITS HISTORY THAT WILL UNFORTUNATELY DOES NOT WELL INFORM THE WAY ITS FOREIGN POLICY IS WIELDED IN THE REGION?

>> I THINK THE UNITED STATES HAS MADE MISTAKES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE EQUATION, BY THE WAY.

I THINK FIRST OF ALL THE UNITED STATES RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAN IS A VERY EMOTIONAL ONE.

JUST THE SAME WAY AS THE IRANIAN RELATIONSHIP OR THE REVOLUTIONARY RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES IS A HIGHLY EMOTIONAL ONE.

THERE'S BEEN A SORT OF INTIMACY IN THAT RELATIONSHIP PRIOR TO THE REVOLUTION WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MANY PEOPLE FEELING ON ONE SIDE OR OTHER BETRAYED BY EITHER SIDE.

AND THIS HAS OFTEN MEANT WE TONED VIEW THE THINGS, WE TEND TO VIEW THE RELATIONSHIP WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF EMOTION AND IRRATIONALITY RATHER THAN LOOKING AT IT VERY HARD-NOSED.

BUT I DO THINK ON THE ONE SIDE THERE'S BEEN AN OVERWEANING ELEMENT OF GUILT ON SOME PEOPLE.

PEOPLE THINK BACK TO 1953 AS IF THIS IS SOMETHING AMERICA HAS TO PAY SOME SORT OF DUES TO AND THERE'S BEEN A GUILT FACTOR.

ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S BEEN THIS SORT OF BELIEF THAT THE REGIME IS SO WEAK IT WILL TOPPLE IMMEDIATELY OR THERE'S A POSSIBILITY OF BASICALLY WITH AN ELEMENT OF SHOCK AND AWE, IF YOU WILL, THAT THINGS WILL CRUMBLE.

WHAT WE NEED REALLY IN THE RELATIONSHIP --AND I WOULD APPLY IT ON BOTH SIDES, BY THE WAY.

I THINK THE IRANIANS HAVE A VERY POOR UNDERSTANDING OR CERTAINLY THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC HAS A VERY POOR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW AMERICAN POLITICS WORKS, FOR INSTANCE.

THEY CAN'T SEEM TO MAKE SENSE OF IT AT ALL EITHER.

BUT I THINK WHAT WE NEED FROM THE AMERICAN SIDE AND CERTAINLY FROM THE WESTERN SIDE IS A LOT MORE NUANCE, A LOT MORE SUBTLETY AND SORT OF UNDERSTANDING HOW THE RELATIONSHIP WORKS.

AND AN APPRECIATION OF THE HISTORY WITHOUT BEING A PRISONER OF THE HISTORY.

AND I THINK FAR TOO MUCH AMERICAN POLICY MAKERS HAVE BEEN PRISONERS OF THE HISTORY WHICH FRANKLY MOST OF THE IRANIANS HAVE MOVED ON FROM.

IT'S SOMETHING THAT WE NEED A LITTLE BIT MORE HARD-NOSED REALISM IN TERMS OF THAT RELATIONSHIP AND UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION MEANS AND WHAT IT ENTAILS FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD BUT ALSO I THINK, AS SOME AMERICAN POLITICIANS DO, BY THE WAY, THEY HAVE MADE THIS CLEAR, THAT THERE'S A DISTINCTION TO BE MADE BETWEEN THE IDEOLOGY IN THE STATE, THE REVOLUTION, AND THE PEOPLE.

AND WHEN YOU CAN DISTINGUISH THAT AND NOT SORT OF TALK IN THE SOMEWHAT GRANDIOSE TERMS THAT SOMETIMES PRESIDENT TRUMP DOES, HE'S VERY LOOSE WITH SOME OF HIS RHETORIC, SHALL WE SAY, HE TENDS TO MERGE THE IRANIAN PEOPLE WITH THE REGIME.

AND OF COURSE THAT'S A BIG MISTAKE, FOR INSTANCE.

THAT'S A BIG MISTAKE THAT MANY PRESIDENTS AND POLITICIANS IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE MADE.

THERE'S A LOT MORE SYMPATHY, I HAVE TO SAY, AMONG THE IRANIAN POPULATION FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE WEST THAN THERE IS WITH THE REGIME.

AND I THINK POLICY HAS TO BE TARGETED VERY CAREFULLY.

AND TO SOME EXTENT WE HAVE SEEN THAT, BY THE WAY, WE HAVE SEEN THAT BEING DONE BUT OBVIOUSLY THERE'S ALWAYS ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT.

>> I NOTE MANY THINGS THAT YOU SAID INCLUDING THAT YOU HAVE TO HAVE AN APPRECIATION OF THE HISTORY AND NOT BE PRISONER TO IT, AND WE DO HOPE SOME OF THAT NUANCE AND UNDERSTANDING COMES THROUGH.

AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THERE ARE STILL IRANIANS THERE THAT HAD THAT SHOW OF NATIONALISM WHEN THEY WERE FIRST STRUCK BY THE U. S. AND ISRAEL BUT ARE LIKELY STILL HOPING THAT THERE IS A PEACEFUL WAY OUT OF THIS.

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI, WE REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHTS HERE.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

THANK YOU.

> >> PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS IT TO BECOME THE 51st STATE, BUT NOW IT'S ACTUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO BECOMING PART OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.

CANADA SHARED A DECADES-LONG PARTNERSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES ECONOMICALLY AND CULTURALLY.

TODAY THE TWO NATIONS ARE IN THE MIDST OF A RELENTLESS TRADE WAR.

IT'S ONE OF THE MOST STRIKING EXAMPLES OF TRUMP'S UNIQUE BRAND OF DIPLOMACY, ONE THAT OUR NEXT GUEST LIKENS TO AN UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND.

IN FACT, THAT'S THE TITLE OF HER NEW BOOK, PART MEMOIR, PART BLUEPRINT FOR DEALING WITH CHAOTIC SUPERPOWERS.

FORMER CANADIAN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER CHRYSTIA FREELAND DRAWS ON HER OWN EXPERIENCE TO INSTRUCT READERS ON HOW TO FIGHT BACK AS SHE EXPLAINS TO WALTER ISAACSON.

>> THANK YOU, PAULA.

AND CHRYSTIA FREELAND, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

>> IN YOUR NEW BOOK, "UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND," YOU HAVE A PRETTY TOUGH BEGINNING IN WHICH YOU SAY ULTIMATELY THIS IS THE STORY OF THE WORLD AMERICA MADE AND THE WORLD AMERICA IS TRYING TO DESTROY.

THIS IS THE STORY OF AMERICA'S DESCENT FROM LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD TO THE WORLD'S PROBLEM CHILD.

YOU HAVE GONE FROM BUILDING THE CITY ON A HILL TO WIELDING A WRECKING BALL QUITE LITERALLY AGAINST YOUR OWN HOME.

EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT CANADA DOES TO ADOPT TO THIS WHOLE NEW SITUATION.

>> WELL, I THINK CANADA IS DOING EXACTLY THE RIGHT THING AND WE HAVE SOME PRACTICE.

THIS IS NOT OUR FIRST RODEO WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.

WE EXPERIENCED SOMETHING ACTUALLY PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENED TO RIP UP NAFTA, OUR TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE UNITED STATES.

AND WE DEVELOPED A THREE- PART PLAYBOOK THEN.

PART ONE WAS DO COLLABORATE WHEN YOU CAN.

BE REASONABLE WHERE THERE ARE AREAS OF SHARED INTEREST.

AND WE FOUND WITH THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THAT WAS HAVING ELEMENTS IN OUR TRADE AGREEMENT THAT PRESERVED HIGH-PAYING BLUE-COLLAR JOBS IN NORTH AMERICA.

OUR SECOND POINT, THOUGH, AND THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT, IS DO NOT CAPITULATE.

AND YOU KNOW, WALTER, THAT THERE WAS IN THIS SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION INITIALLY A VIEW BY A LOT OF PEOPLE INSIDE THE U. S. AND ALSO A LOT OF PEOPLE OUTSIDE THE U. S. THAT WHAT YOU HAD TO DO WAS SOMEHOW KIND OF SWEET- TALK THE PRESIDENT AND MAYBE HE WOULD GET DISTRACTED AND THAT WAS HOW TO GET THROUGH THIS.

OUR VIEW THEN AND CANADA'S VIEW TODAY IS THAT IS ABSOLUTELY WRONG.

PRESIDENT TRUMP IS A CLASSIC BULLY.

AND IF YOU GIVE IN TO HIM ONCE HE DOESN'T SAY OH, YOU'RE SUCH NICE GUYS, THAT'S GREAT.

HE JUST DECIDES TO COME BACK FOR MORE.

SO OUR VIEW WAS WE DO NOT ESCALATE, WE DO NOT BACK DOWN.

THE THIRD PART OF THE PLAYBOOK, THOUGH, IS VERY IMPORTANT.

WE CALLED IT THE DONUT STRATEGY.

AND THE IDEA WAS THAT THE PRESIDENT IS THE HOLE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DONUT.

IMPORTANT BUT FAR FROM THE ONLY PLAYER IN THE UNITED STATES.

AND WE BELIEVED THAT WHAT WE NEEDED TO DO IS GET OUT AND TALK TO AMERICANS.

MAYORS, GOVERNORS, SMALL BUSINESSES, TRADE UNIONS.

AND IF WE MADE THE CASE TO AMERICANS THEY WOULD GET IT AND THEY WOULD PUT PRESSURE ON THEIR PRESIDENT TO STOP TRYING TO BEAT CANADA UP, TO STOP TRYING TO TAKE CANADA OVER, AND TO GO BACK TO WHAT WE'VE HAD FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OUR HISTORY, WHICH IS A WIN-WIN MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL, MUTUALLY RESPECTFUL RELATIONSHIP.

>> YOU KNOW, WE'RE ABOUT TO GO INTO OUR MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN A WEEK OR SO.

AND THE TARIFFS ARE PLAYING A BIG ROLE IN TWO KEY STATES, MAINE AND MICHIGAN.

CERTAINLY THEY'VE CUT AGAINST, IT SEEMS, PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS.

HOW DO YOU READ THE SITUATION, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE MIDTERMS AND THOSE TWO STATES?

>> EXACT LIV LY AS YOU SAY, WALTER.

I THINK THAT MAINE AND MICHIGAN ARE TWO STATES THAT HAVE EXTREMELY CLOSE RELATIONSHIPS WITH CANADA OVER MANY, MANY DECADES AND THEY UNDERSTAND THAT THOSE RELATIONSHIPS ARE GOOD FOR THE PEOPLE OF MAINE.

THEY'RE GOOD FOR THE PEOPLE OF MICHIGAN.

IN MICHIGAN WE BUILD CARS TOGETHER.

THE CAR SECTOR REALLY DEPENDS ON US COLLABORATING.

SOMETHING THAT I KNOW THE PEOPLE OF MICHIGAN REMEMBER IS DURING COVID 1500 CANADIAN DOCTORS AND NURSES CROSSED THE BRIDGE FROM WINDSOR INTO DETROIT EVERY SINGLE DAY TO KEEP DETROIT HOSPITALS GOING.

THAT'S HOW CLOSE THE RELATIONSHIP IS.

AND THE SAME IS TRUE OF MAINE, WHERE THE ECONOMIES, THE FAMILIES ARE CLOSELY INTEGRATED.

AND PEOPLE SEE THAT THESE TARIFFS ARE NOT ONLY POINTLESS, THEY'RE ACTUALLY ECONOMICALLY HARMFUL.

THEY ARE COSTING PEOPLE IN MICHIGAN AND MAINE JOBS.

THEY ARE MAKING LIFE LESS AFFORDABLE.

SO I THINK THAT THE VOTERS OF MICHIGAN AND MAINE UNDERSTAND IT AND IT'S IN AMERICA'S POWER TO STOP IT.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT RONALD REAGAN.

YOU INVOKE THE SHINING CITY ON A HILL AS WHAT AMERICA HAD BUILT BUT IS NOW WRECKING.

THAT OF COURSE COMES FROM JOHN WINTHROP'S FAMOUS SERMON WHEN THE PURITANS ARRIVE IN AMERICA.

BUT IT WAS MADE FAMOUS BY RONALD REAGAN, WHO MADE IT A SYMBOL OF AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM.

EXPLAIN TO ME YOUR VIEW ON WHAT USED TO BE CALLED AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM AND WHAT'S HAPPENED TO IT BECAUSE IT'S SMUG TALK ABOUT IN YOUR BOOK "UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND. "

>> YEAH.

SO YOU KNOW, WALTER, I WOULD SAY PROBABLY MORE THAN AMERICANS REALIZE AMERICA --THE WORLD AND IN PARTICULAR AMERICA'S CLOSEST FRIENDS, COUNTRIES LIKE CANADA, COUNTRIES LIKE AMERICA'S NATO ALLIES, ONE OF WHOM IS CANADA, BUT AMERICA'S NATIVE ALLIES IN EUROPE, COUNTRIES LIKE AMERICA'S ALLIES IN THE PACIFIC ARE GIVING UP ON AMERICA AND ARE STARTING TO SEE AMERICA NOT AS A FRIEND BUT AS A THREAT.

THERE WERE SOME VERY SHOCKING TO ME SURVEYS OVER THE SUMMER THAT SHOWED THAT IN CANADA, IN GERMANY, ALL OF THOSE COUNTRIES SAW CHINA AS LESS OF A THREAT THAN THE UNITED STATES.

THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A MINUTE.

NOW, TO ME THE BIG QUESTION IS CAN THEY RELATIONSHIP BE REBUILT?

CAN, YOU KNOW, THE ALLIANCE OF THE NON- GEOGRAPHIC WEST BE RENEWED IN SOME WAY?

I WOULD SAY A LOT OF CANADIANS, IF YOU ASKED THEM THAT QUESTION, WOULD SAY IT CAN'T, WE CAN NEVER TRUST AMERICA AGAIN.

MY OWN VIEW IS WE NEED TO LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN.

AND I THINK THAT BECAUSE I REALLY BELIEVE THERE'S A BIG FIGHT GOING ON IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW, THERE'S A FIGHT BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND DICTATORSHIP.

NOW, I DO A LOT OF WORK IN UKRAINE, AND UKRAINE IS ON THE FRONT LINES OF THAT FIGHT.

THE WORLD'S DEMOCRACIES, WE'RE GOING TO KEEP ON GOING NO MATTER WHAT CHOICE AMERICANS MAKE.

BUT IT SURE WILL BE BETTER FOR THE WORLD'S DEMOCRACIES IF AMERICA IS ON TEAM DEMOCRACY.

>> YOU'VE BEEN ADVISING TO SOME EXTENT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY IN UKRAINE.

THINGS HAVE GOTTEN WORSE IN THE PAST MONTH OR TWO BETWEEN ESPECIALLY PERSONALLY BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP AND ZELENSKYY.

WHAT ARE YOU ADVISING HIM TO DO, AND WHAT'S YOUR PROGNOSIS FOR THE SITUATION NOW?

>> I THINK THAT'S A REALLY ARE IMPORTANT ISSUE, WALTER, ARGUABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW.

SO THANKS FOR RAISING IT.

AN IMPORTANT STARTING POINT IS UKRAINE, TO THE SHOCK OF I WOULD SAY EVERYONE APART FROM THE UKRAINIANS HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL ON THE BATTLEFIELD THIS YEAR.

YOU KNOW, THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR THE CONSENSUS VIEW, THE RECEIVED WISDOM WAS UKRAINE IS GOING TO BE GIVING UP TERRITORY INCH BY INCH, MILE BY MILE AND IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THAT HAPPENS.

THE REALITY IS UKRAINE HAS NOT ONLY HELD THE LINE BUT IN SOME PLACES PUSHED RUSSIA BACK.

SO UKRAINE HAS BEEN WINNING ON THE BATTLEFIELD, AND PUTIN HAS RESPONDED TO THAT BY ATTACKING UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS, BY ATTACKING UKRAINIAN CITIES.

AND TO ME THAT IS WHY THE BETRAYAL OF UKRAINE BY PRESIDENT TRUMP IS PARTICULARLY APPALLING, BECAUSE WE'RE AT A MOMENT WHEN UKRAINE COULD WIN, WHEN UKRAINE COULD PUSH PUTIN HARD ENOUGH TO THIS TERRIBLE WAR WOULD END, AND THAT, YOU KNOW, THIS THREAT TO THE WHOLE IDEA THAT SOVEREIGN STATES CANNOT BE INVADED BY THEIR NEIGHBORS, YOU KNOW, THE GREAT POST-WORLD WAR II SETTLEMENT, WE COULD COME OUT ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF THAT.

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND THEIR PERPLEXING SUPPORT FOR PUTIN IS PUTTING ALL OF THAT IN JEOPARDY.

I REALLY APPLAUD PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY FOR HIS DETERMINATION, FOR BEING SO RESOLUTE, AND FOR DOING SOMETHING REALLY HARD, WHICH IS BEING OPENING AND CANDID ABOUT THIS U. S. BETRAYAL.

AND THAT IS A HARD THING TO SAY.

I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT'S IMPORTANT FOR AMERICANS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THEIR GOVERNMENT IS IS DOING.

AND IT SORT OF GOES BACK TO MY MESSAGE ABOUT THE UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND IN CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES.

LIKE AT THE END OF THE DAY I REALLY DO HAVE FAITH IN THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

I DO NOT THINK THEY WANT A TRADE WAR WITH CANADA.

AND I THINK THEY RECOGNIZE THAT PUTIN IS A CRIMINAL DICTATOR INVADING A NEIGHBORING COUNTRY THAT JUST WANTS TO EXIST AND THAT THE UKRAINIANS ARE BRAVE PEOPLE WHO ARE FIGHTING FOR THEIR SOVEREIGNTY.

AND OPINION POLLS SHOW THAT, THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE RECOGNIZE THAT THE UKRAINIAN CAUSE IS JUST AND RECOGNIZE THAT PUTIN IS A THREAT.

SO I THINK ALTHOUGH IT WAS HARD WHAT PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SAID, DIFFICULT TO SAY HARD THINGS CLEARLY AND CANDIDLY, I THINK IT WAS IMPORTANT.

AND THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DESERVE TO KNOW THE TRUTH.

>> WHAT SHOULD CANADA DO AND WHAT IS CANADA DOING TO HAVE BETTER RELATIONSHIPS WITH CHINA BOTH ON TRADE AND WE HEAR EVEN ON SOME MILITARY AND DEFENSE MATTERS THERE'S DISCUSSIONS?

>> SO WALTER, I'M NO LONGER IN THE GOVERNMENT AND I AM A CHINA HAWK.

I THINK THAT THE WORLD'S DEMOCRACIES NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT GETTING TOO CLOSE TO CHINA.

I WAS APPALLED, AS I KNOW SO MANY PEOPLE WERE, WHEN WE SAW PRESIDENT TRUMP DIRECTLY SIDING WITH RUSSIA, WHEN WE SAW HIS REPRESENTATIVE, STEVE WITKOFF, DESCRIBING PUTIN AS A HUMANITARIAN.

THOSE WERE SHOCKING, APPALLING MOMENTS, AND WE SHOULD BE SHOCKED AND APPALLED.

IF WE'RE SHOCKED AND APPALLED BY THAT, WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THAT CHINA IS RUSSIA'S NUMBER ONE SUPPORTER RIGHT NOW.

THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS CONTINUING TO OPERATE BECAUSE OF CHINA.

XI HAS TALKED ABOUT THE ETERNAL FRIENDSHIP HE HAS WITH PUTIN AND BETWEEN CHINA AND RUSSIA.

AND CHINA IS SUPPORTING EQUIPMENT FOR RUSSIA'S MILITARY.

SO IF YOU ARE A PERSON WHO BELIEVES IN DEMOCRACY, IF YOU ARE A PERSON WHO BELIEVES THAT PUTIN'S DICTATORSHIP IS TRYING TO TEAR DEMOCRACY DOWN, STARTING WITH UKRAINE BUT IS A THREAT TO EUROPE, AND I BELIEVE ALL THOSE THINGS, THEN YOU HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT CHINA IS PART OF THAT EFFORT TOO AND IS ON THE WRONG SIDE.

>> ONE OF THE GREAT GLOBAL FORCES HAPPENING NOW IS THE RISE OF PLUTOCRATS, WHETHER IT BE IN RUSSIA OR THE UNITED STATES.

AND YOU WROTE A BOOK IN 2012 CALLED "PLUTOCRATS," AND YOU TALKED ABOUT THE PROBLEMS THAT CAN ARRIVE WHEN THERE'S A GREAT DISPARITY LIKE THAT.

YOU ALSO THEN ADDRESS IT IN YOUR NEW BOOK, "UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND. "

YOU WRITE "THEY MAY BE SCORPIONS BUT IT'S OUR JOB, WE THE PEOPLE YOU THROUGH OUR ELECTED GOVERNMENT TO IMPOSE ON THEM THE CONSTRAINTS THAT WILL CHANNEL THEIR INEVITABLY SELFISH SELF-INTEREST FOR THE PUBLIC GOOD. "

TELL ME HOW YOU THINK GOVERNMENTS NOW HAVE TO DEAL WITH THIS NEW ECONOMIC ORDER WE'VE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST 30 YEARS.

>> YEAH.

SO WHEN I WROTE "PLUTOCRATS," I COULD SORT OF ANALYTICALLY SEE THAT WE AND IN PARTICULAR THE UNITED STATES WAS MOVING TO A REAL PLUTOCRACY.

BUT IT'S ONE THING TO UNDERSTAND SOMETHING ANALYTICALLY.

IT'S ANOTHER THING EMOTIONALLY TO ACTUALLY SEE IT.

AND I HAVE TO SAY WHEN YOU SEE THE JUST EXTREME WEALTH THAT A HANDFUL OF PEOPLE HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH THAT WEALTH HAS BECOME AN OUTSIZED POLITICAL VOICE IN THE UNITED STATES AND AROUND THE WORLD, JUST CONSIDER THE ELON MUSK STARLINK DRAMA, I THINK, YOU KNOW, MY OWN FEARS OF PLUTOCRACY IF ANYTHING WERE UNDERSTATED 15 YEARS AGO.

WHAT DO WE HAVE TO DO ABOUT IT?

I'M GLAD YOU READ THAT QUOTE BECAUSE I AM PRO A MARKET ECONOMY.

I AM PRO CAPITALISM.

VERY EARLY ON IN MY CAREER WHEN I WAS STILL A STUDENT I ACTUALLY LIVED IN THE ACTUAL SOVIET UNION.

SO I KNOW WHAT IT'S LIKE TO LIVE IN A CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMY WHERE THE STATE OWNS AND CONTROLS EVERYTHING.

IT'S NOT GOOD, WALTER.

I REMEMBER STANDING IN LINE FOR SAUSAGE AND FOR BUTTER.

AT THE END OF THE DAY A MARKET ECONOMY WORKS.

BUT A MARKET ECONOMY ONLY WORKS IF, YOU KNOW, WE THE PEOPLE THROUGH OUR DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOVERNMENTS CONTROL THE MARKET, CONTROL THE MARKETS, SHAPE THE MARKETS, REGULATE THE MARKETS AND CONTROL THE CAPITALISTS.

IT WAS WARREN BUFFETT WHO SAID THAT HE LIKES TO INVEST IN COMPANIES THAT HAVE A MOAT AROUND THEM, THAT DON'T HAVE COMPETITION.

THAT'S WHAT EVERY GREAT INVESTOR, THAT'S WHAT EVERY CAPITALIST WANTS.

AND IT'S THE JOB OF GOVERNMENT TO REGULATE, TO BE SURE THAT BUSINESSES ARE ACTING IN THE INTERESTS OF THE PEOPLE, TO BE SURE THAT MONOPOLIES ARE NOT FORMED AND TO BE SURE THAT THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ACCUMULATING GREAT WEALTH THANKS TO ALL OF US PAY THE TAXES THAT ARE NECESSARY TO CREATE A JUST SOCIETY TO ARE PROVIDE A SOCIAL SAFETY NET.

IT IS CONNECTED TO THE UNRELIABLE BOYFRIEND AND TO MY OWN HOPE THAT WE CAN RENEW THE WESTERN ALLIANCE BECAUSE ONE OF THE CHALLENGES WITH PLUTOCRATS AND DEMOCRACY IS CAPITAL HAS GONE GLOBAL AND DEMOCRACY IS NATIONAL.

AND SO UNLESS YOU HAVE THE WORLD'S DEMOCRACIES WORKING TOGETHER TO REIN IN THE PLUTOCRATS, TO ENSURE THAT THE WORK THAT THEY ARE DOING SERVES EVERYBODY, THEN THE PLUTOCRATS CAN ALWAYS JURISDICTION SHOP.

THEY CAN ALWAYS THREATEN A COUNTRY, LOOK, I'M GOING TO LEAVE.

IF YOU TAX ME, IF YOU REGULATE ME I'M GONE.

AND ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS IS A RACE TO THE BOTTOM WHEN IT COMES TO TAXATION, WHEN IT COMES TO REGULATION.

UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION THERE WAS ACTUALLY AN EFFORT TO END THAT RACE TO THE BOTTOM, TO DO A DEAL AMONG THE WORLD'S DEMOCRACIES, AMONG THE WORLD'S RICHEST COUNTRIES ON TAX.

WHAT WE REALLY NEED, WHAT AMERICANS NEED IS AN ADMINISTRATION THAT'S PREPARED TO RENEW THAT EFFORT.

>> CHRYSTIA FREELAND, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

APPRECIATE IT.

>> GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

>> AND FINALLY FOR US, MEET THE PICASSO OF PUMPKIN CARVERS.

A CYBERSECURITY SYSTEMS ENGINEER BY DAY, MIKE VALADAO GOES BY FARMER MIKE EVERY FALL, PUTTING HIS CHISEL TO WORK AND CARVING WHIMSICAL DESIGNS ON GIANT ATLANTIC PUMPKINS.

NOW, GET THIS.

THEY CAN WEIGH UP TO 1,000 POUNDS AND THEIR THICK SKINS MEAN ELABORATE FEATURES CAN BE CRAFTED MORE EASILY.

NOW, OVER THE LAST FOUR DECADES FARMER MIKE HAS CARVED HUNDREDS OF GOURDS FROM GHOULISH FACES TO CARTOON ICONS LIKE CHARLIE BROWN, AN ART HE HAS TAKEN GREAT CARE TO MASTER.

FARMER MIKE, PLEASE, AFTER HALLOWEEN WE NEED YOU BACK ON YOUR DAY JOB GIVEN AI.

AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP ON THE SHOW EACH NIGHT SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER AT PBS.

ORG/AMANPOUR.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING, AND GOOD-BYE FROM NEW YORK.